Social Security COLAs are tied directly to inflation. Therefore, when one goes down, it indicates that the other is down, too. In other words, a smaller 2025 COLA means inflation has been cooling. If that trend continues, seniors on Social Security could gain buying power in the form of lower prices in stores and in general.

Though we still have a month to find out what the official COLA will be for next year, experts closely tracking inflation trends are able to make fairly accurate predictions in th

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The COLA has been up and down over the last few years as it was 3.2% in 2023, 8.7% in 2022, 5.9% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2020. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official COLA for 2025 in mid-October.

The next cost-of-living increase for Social Security recipients — which was already projected to be the lowest in years — is continuing to fall even lower, according to the latest figures from the Labor Department.

Retirees will get a "raise" next year. But it will likely be smaller than what they're accustomed to receiving.

Social Security recipients received a 3.2% COLA in 2024, a significant decrease from the 8.7% COLA in 2023, which was the largest increase in four decades. For 2025, using current inflation data from the Consumer Price Index, it’s estimated there will be a 2.5% COLA in 2025, according to The Senior Citizens League (TSCL).

Data source: Social Security Administration. You see that they can get quite high or be quite low. The average COLA over the past two decades or so has been about 2.6%.